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Weekly Gold & Silver Market Recap – 8/30/2013

GOLD NEAR BULL MARKET

The Gold price started the week flat, treading water just below the $1,400 per ounce mark. Barratt Bulletin newsletter founder Jonathan Barratt believes that Gold is nearing a bull market again. He said, “When you look at Gold, it only has to travel back through $1,416 [per ounce] to re-enter the bull market. So we're pretty close to that and it [the gains] has been the result of physical demand, geopolitical issues and also in the U.S. and what's happening with tapering.”  The Silver price has been a standout recently. Atyant Capital Global Opportunities Fund lead portfolio manager Vedant Mimani said, “Gold investors tend to be more conservative relative to Silver investors so Gold investors may be taking a wait-and-see approach, while the Silver community is trying to get ahead of the Fed.” However, Morgan Stanley research recently discovered that Silver’s supply and demand fundamentals have been improving lately, also helping the metal see a boost in price.

OIL PRICES RISE AS SYRIA HEADLINES NEWS

Oil initially rose on Wednesday based on continued unrest in Syria and the Middle East.  UBS Financial Services director of floor operations Art Cashin said, “The market was somewhat impervious to the geopolitical risk that was out there and now it's come home to roost I think you want to watch both oil and Gold … The difficulty is that once events begin to take place, they can accelerate and that becomes a problem.”  Bernard Sin, head of currency and metal trading at bullion refiner MKS (Switzerland) SA in Geneva, said, “We are seeing safe haven buying across the board. Geopolitical uncertainty triggered this buying interest.”  U.S. energy stocks helped boost equities markets Wednesday as rising oil prices reacted to a potential maneuver against Syria.

GOLD DOWN, STOCKS UP ON VERY LOW VOLUME

The diminished threat of military engagement in Syria combined with a stronger U.S. dollar to push the Gold price down for a second straight session Thursday.  With the Syrian situation on hold, jobless claims seeing six-year lows and GDP rising to a 2.5 percent annual rate were the day’s central economic factors weighing on investor sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve’s intentions for the future of quantitative easing. “It is likely, in our view, that a potential airstrike against Syria would be short-lived, with the Gold market turning its attention back to the [Federal Reserve policy] meeting on Sept. 17-18 ... and the release of the U.S. August nonfarm payrolls report next Friday,” Andrey Kryuchenkov, analyst at VTB Capital, said.  Gold has recently flirted with reentering bullish territory as it breached $1,400 an ounce, up from its late June low of $1,180 per ounce.  The yellow metal’s year-to-date losses have come on the heels of improvement in key sectors of the economy and the anticipation that the Fed would begin scaling back its level of asset purchases.

SYRIA IN HEADLINES KEEP PRESSURE ON METALS

Precious Metals traded lower Friday morning after news that the United Kingdom parliament voted against a strike on Syria.  French President Francois Hollande said a military response to the reported chemical attacks in Syria could come as soon as Wednesday. Hollande said, “The chemical massacre of Damascus cannot and must not remain unpunished. All options [are available and] France wants firm and proportionate action.” A response would likely focus on Syria’s ability to launch chemical attacks as opposed to a removal of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from power.  Though Precious Metals were trending lower on Friday as the speculation of an imminent military attack on Syria is has begun to lose momentum, Gold futures rose nearly 7 percent for the month of August and around 14 percent for the quarter. Mark O’Byrne, executive director at GoldCore in Dublin, said, “The smart money is in position or positioning itself for the coming rally which should see Gold back above $1,600/oz by year end.”

At 4:57 p.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

  • Gold, $1,397.00, Down $17.90.
  • Silver, $23.56, Down $0.61.
  • Platinum, $1,524.30, Up $0.90.
  • Palladium, $723.40, Down $15.80.

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Disclaimer:
APMEX’s ‘Market Reports’ provide our readers with a review of spot price activity and some of the factors that may be affecting the market for precious metals, three times during the trading day. While the information is obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy or its completeness and we encourage you to conduct your own investigation prior to making any decision based on the information. The "News and Commentaries" are not intended as a comprehensive discussion and there may be other factors that may be affecting the financial marketplace. These "News and Commentaries" are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation by APMEX to hold, to purchase or to sell any precious metal product. All orders, all purchases and all sales, if any, are subject to the terms of the User Agreement and other applicable policies.

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