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Morning Gold & Silver Market Report – 4/4/2012

GOLD, GLOBAL MARKETS DOWN ON RECESSION FEARS  

The Gold price has dropped to one of its lowest levels in the past 3 months. The release of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting (with little talk of further quantitative easing), and the European Central Bank holding steady to try to subdue inflation have many investors taking profits and looking at riskier investment opportunities. The euro’s value is falling while the U.S. dollar is rising. Standard Bank’s Walter De Wet said, “The minutes by the Fed indicated that there would be no quantitative easing unless the economy takes a dip for the worse. Gold immediately sold off on that, and now the dollar is stronger, too, so that’s weighing on Gold. … I wouldn’t be surprised if we push lower toward $1,600 -- that is what we think is a floor, and we are unlikely to fall substantially below that.” However, his long-term outlook for Gold is quite positive, with an estimate of $1,900 per ounce by the end of the year.

The ECB decided to take a wait-and-see approach to its own dilemmas. Recessions are projected in seven eurozone nations, while Germany has the lone expanding economy. The problems facing Germany are rising wages and increased housing costs, factors which normally forecast inflation. Senior economist Christian Schulz said, “Early signs of wage inflation and rising house prices in Germany will make some hawkish Governing Council members nervous.” Those issues led chief economist Holger Sandte to say, “The ECB is in a dilemma. It’s not an optimal currency area. The economy is terrible in some parts and OK in others, and prices are diverging.”

Economic concerns have returned to domestic and international markets due to central banks’ philosophies. Some investors are worried that the markets are moving upward because of the inflow of cash from the easing programs. Stewart Richardson, a partner at RMG Wealth Management, reiterated those market fears, saying, “Markets are only going up because of central banks’ extraordinary measures, and the underlining economy is struggling with severe headwinds. … If we don’t get any more QE from the Fed or LTRO (long-term refinancing operations) from the ECB, markets will take a step back and reassess why they’re going up.”

At 8 a.m. (CDT) – the APMEX precious metals spot prices were:

  • Gold - $1,623.00 – Down $48.50.
  • Silver - $31.79 – Down $1.53.
  • Platinum - $1,618.00 – Down $41.50.
  • Palladium - $648.50 – Down $12.10.

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Disclaimer:
APMEX’s ‘Market Reports’ provide our readers with a review of spot price activity and some of the factors that may be affecting the market for precious metals, three times during the trading day. While the information is obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy or its completeness and we encourage you to conduct your own investigation prior to making any decision based on the information. The "News and Commentaries" are not intended as a comprehensive discussion and there may be other factors that may be affecting the financial marketplace. These "News and Commentaries" are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation by APMEX to hold, to purchase or to sell any precious metal product. All orders, all purchases and all sales, if any, are subject to the terms of the User Agreement and other applicable policies.

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