Daily Gold & Silver Market Report – 12/13/2016

Cassie Bastien

12/13/2016 11:07:00 AM

IS SILVER A LEADER OR FOLLOWER?

Silver is continuing to trade above its bear trend, while Gold is trading below its own bear trend. ETF Daily News wonders which is the leading indicator, as the answer determines whether Precious Metals are in a long-term bull or long-term bear market. In hopes of finding a pattern, they are looking at a longer timeframe. ETF Daily News explained, “Silver’s stunning rally this year was ‘stopped cold’ right at the 2008 highs,” before seeing a 2011 peak, which they cannot connect in any significant pattern. After looking over many numbers and charts, they still feel a bear market is in full effect and Gold is more reliable, saying Silver is a known follower.

OIL IN THE NEWS

Although the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Tuesday it is too soon to fully assess the impact of a cut in global oil supply by the world's largest producers, Amanda Cooper with Reuters says global demand will rise more strongly than expected in 2017, explaining, “[the IEA’s] revisions to its estimate of Chinese and Russian consumption had prompted it to raise its forecast for global oil demand growth this year by 120,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.4 million, and to lift its forecast for 2017 by 110,000 bpd to 1.3 million bpd.” The IEA also said there could be a shortfall of 600,000 bpd in the market early next year if all parties stick to the production cuts. The Paris-based organization said, "The deal is for six months and we should allow time for it to be implemented before re-assessing our market outlook.” Cooper explained, “sharp rises in imports of mixed aromatics in the first half of this year and better coverage of the independent, or "teapot" refineries” allowed the IEA to increase its estimate of Chinese oil consumption by 135,000 bpd for 2016. As production by Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) offset declines elsewhere, the IEA said global oil supply rose to a record 98.2 million bpd in November. International Energy Agency Chief Fatih Birol told a conference in Prague "If the price goes up to around $60, we will see investments from the U.S. and elsewhere and we will see a lot of oil coming from the U.S. and other regions. Global oil demand growth, with high prices, will be weaker."

WHEN WILL GOLD’S TURNAROUND BEGIN?

Taki Tsaklanos with Investing.com says the company’s 2017 Gold prices forecast appears to be spot-on. According to their research, “Gold remains in its long term downtrend, despite its bullish energy during the first part of the year.” After reviewing the past three years, Tsaklanos said “Gold seems to be stuck in a sideways pattern.” He feels that in addition to June, December is also a critical month for Gold’s future. With that being said, Tsaklanos still believes Gold will continue its long-term bull market, though Tsaklanos explains, “Gold can behave as a fear asset, but it can also be driven by inflationary or deflationary forces.” The most important aspect of Gold investing is to understand why Gold is trending.

At 12:06 P.M. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold, $1,214.80 Down $8.00
• Silver, $16.64 Down $0.29
• Platinum, $931.00 Down $0.70
• Palladium, $726.00 Up $3.10

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